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Always Blue?

November 4, 2019 4:05 PM

When I moved some time ago back to Suffolk I was told the Conservatives have always held South Suffolk, its their natural territory. No-one ever gets a look in. A look at history suggests that's true but not quite as overwhelmingly as you might think. In the 2005 election the Liberal Democrats were under 7000 votes behind, in 1997 Labour came within around 4000. Add to this the fact that politics now has become very volatile and you begin to think anything is possible. The local elections in May saw the Conservatives lose their majority on Babergh Council and the Brexit argument is causing many people to re-think long term political loyalties

To illustrate the point constituency polling is rare and subject to wider error but Survation a very reputable polling Company have completed three such polls in recent weeks which illustrate this volatility

Take Finchley a Conservative seat where Lucinda Berger is standing for us having left the Labour Party

Finchley & Golders Green Westminster voting intention:

LDEM: 41% (+34)
CON: 29% (-18)
LAB: 25% (-19)
GRN: 3% (+1)
BREX: 2% (+2)

via @Survation, 02 Oct
Chgs. w/ 2017 result.

Or Cambridge a Labour seat where we are the main challengers

Cambridge Westminster voting intention:

LDEM: 39% (+10)
LAB: 30% (-22)
GRN: 12% (+10)
CON: 10% (-6)
BREX: 7% (+7)

via @Survation, 16 - 17 Oct
Chgs. w/ 2017 result

Or what about the seat of Jacob Rees-Mogg a seat where we have never finished higher than third

North East Somerset Voting Intention
CON: 44% (-10)
LDEM: 28% (+20)
LAB: 14% (-20)
BREX: 7% (+7)
GRN: 3% (+1)

via @Survation, 16 - 17 Oct
Chgs. w/ 2017 result

The trend is clear. In all three seats the support for the Liberal Democrats is surging as those who support Remain move to us. Previous articles on this site have discussed this trend particularly amongst moderate Conservative voters. Another example is former Conservative cabinet minister Stephen Dorrell who has announced he will stand in the general election as a Liberal Democrat. He will contest the Buckingham seat, held by John Bercow, who retired as the Commons Speaker last week. Mr Dorrell is quoted on the BBC as saying "I am a liberal conservative, and liberal conservatives should no longer support the Conservative Party."

So there is all to play for. We need to campaign strongly to convince those voters who believe our place remains in Europe to vote for us and who knows what may happen. To help our campaign please go to our volunteer page or donate to ensure we can run the most effective campaign possible

STOP PRESS: Another Survation poll issued today tells the same story. This is a seat we have held but where we had fallen back to third place in 2017

Portsmouth South, constituency voting intention:

LDEM: 30% (+13)
CON: 27% (-14)
LAB: 24% (-17)
BREX: 14% (+14)

via @Survation, 28 - 29 Oct

box (Courtesy of Nigel Adams)